The Politics of Tribalism Part 2

We are two years from the last election in 2006 and if we were to guesstimate the result of the 2008 presidential election what would be base our analysis on?

As if I did not need to remind you, the MMD won the last election and for the outcome of the 2008 Presidential by-election to have a different outcome there has to be some form of a fundamental shift in political or rather tribal allegiance.

Following the demise of Levy Mwanawasa the following changes have taken place in Zambia:
1. MMD has a new President
2. UDA excluding UPND has supported the MMD candidate
3. All the rest remains the same

These changes have several implications for the political map for each of the political parties.

MMD

The adoption of Rupiah Banda and the support of the UDA minus UPND will result in a better showing in Lusaka and in Eastern Province. As a result the margin of victory for the Patriotic Front in Lusaka will be greatly reduced.

We must remember that much like UNIP before it the MMD has become an institution in Zambia and consequently those who voted MMD in the last election are unlikely to change their allegiance for fear of retribution especially from the PF.

In short MMD will poll virtually the same numbers but will add numbers in Lusaka and Eastern Province.

UPND

The UPND has become a single entity and will more than likely lose ground in Lusaka and Eastern Province to the MMD.

PF
The PF atleast in the eyes of the private media has already won the presidential by election but the real problem PF faces is its leader. Mr. Sata does not attract independent or better said minority tribe voters; if anything he repels them.

This explains why PFs numbers are so bad outside of Lusaka, Northern, Coppperbelt and Luapula.

Barring a miracle the MMD candidate will win the presidential by election and as per the standard there will be claims of rigging even from UPND whose support is limited to Southern Province.

Opposition politics in Zambia is simply more of the same only with different names; there are no ideological differences between UPND, MMD, PF or any other political party. As a consequence we are left to decide based on personalities, tribal affiliation, empty promises and personal gain.