We are a week away from the presidential by election and it is becoming increasingly obvious that this election has nothing to do with electing a president who truly has a way forward to Zambia.
The people and the candidates are more concerned with the ethnic background of the winner. As it stands today the “opposition” have already declared they will not accept the results of the election if they do not win.
Which begs the question why are we holding an election in the first place? I will be the first to admit I was convinced the MMD “rigged” the 2006 Presidential elections, I had no proof at the time but all the same I was convinced.
It is only with hindsight that I realize that based on absolutely no evidence I fell into the same trap most Zambians fell into and I honestly should have known better. I should have looked at the numbers and made my judgements based on the facts not on my own biased inclinations.
Like it of not the facts are plain and simple; the MMD is the only party that won votes countrywide. They campaigned throughout Zambia and maintained a higher “average” number of votes than the rest of the parties.
The truth of the matter is that you CANNOT win a national election based on three provinces and take the rest of the country for granted. In order to win you must maximize votes in your stronger areas and minimize your losses in those areas where you are weak.
The opposition candidates fared well in some provinces but were absolutely pathetic in other provinces.
The following general pattern characterized the 2006 elections and will probably characterize the 2008 Presidential election:
| Constituency: BANGWEULU PF 15,770 68.74% MMD 5,237 22.83% UDA 1,530 6.67% HP 248 1.08% APC 155 0.68% Constituency Totals: 22,940 | Constituency: BWEENGWA UDA 11,061 90.74% MMD 972 7.97% HP 71 0.58% PF 62 0.51% APC 24 0.20% Constituency Totals: 12,190 | Constituency: CHAVUMA MMD 8,089 71.41% UDA 3,050 26.92% PF 70 0.62% HP 69 0.61% APC 50 0.44% Constituency Totals: 11,328 |
It does not take a mathematics professor to recognize that the MMD candidate did not win the majority of the votes but did manage to avoid being “blown out” where they did not win and that was the key to the MMD victory in 2006.
As urban dwelling Zambians we have a bad habit of believing Ndola, Kitwe, Lusaka etc are the country and it is only when elections results are announced that we realize how wrong we truly are.
In order to come to an informed decision on the outcome of the coming election we must……wait until the next blog
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