The Politics of Tribalism Part 2

We are two years from the last election in 2006 and if we were to guesstimate the result of the 2008 presidential election what would be base our analysis on?

As if I did not need to remind you, the MMD won the last election and for the outcome of the 2008 Presidential by-election to have a different outcome there has to be some form of a fundamental shift in political or rather tribal allegiance.

Following the demise of Levy Mwanawasa the following changes have taken place in Zambia:
1. MMD has a new President
2. UDA excluding UPND has supported the MMD candidate
3. All the rest remains the same

These changes have several implications for the political map for each of the political parties.

MMD

The adoption of Rupiah Banda and the support of the UDA minus UPND will result in a better showing in Lusaka and in Eastern Province. As a result the margin of victory for the Patriotic Front in Lusaka will be greatly reduced.

We must remember that much like UNIP before it the MMD has become an institution in Zambia and consequently those who voted MMD in the last election are unlikely to change their allegiance for fear of retribution especially from the PF.

In short MMD will poll virtually the same numbers but will add numbers in Lusaka and Eastern Province.

UPND

The UPND has become a single entity and will more than likely lose ground in Lusaka and Eastern Province to the MMD.

PF
The PF atleast in the eyes of the private media has already won the presidential by election but the real problem PF faces is its leader. Mr. Sata does not attract independent or better said minority tribe voters; if anything he repels them.

This explains why PFs numbers are so bad outside of Lusaka, Northern, Coppperbelt and Luapula.

Barring a miracle the MMD candidate will win the presidential by election and as per the standard there will be claims of rigging even from UPND whose support is limited to Southern Province.

Opposition politics in Zambia is simply more of the same only with different names; there are no ideological differences between UPND, MMD, PF or any other political party. As a consequence we are left to decide based on personalities, tribal affiliation, empty promises and personal gain.

The Politics of Tribalism Part 1

We are a week away from the presidential by election and it is becoming increasingly obvious that this election has nothing to do with electing a president who truly has a way forward to Zambia.

The people and the candidates are more concerned with the ethnic background of the winner. As it stands today the “opposition” have already declared they will not accept the results of the election if they do not win.

Which begs the question why are we holding an election in the first place? I will be the first to admit I was convinced the MMD “rigged” the 2006 Presidential elections, I had no proof at the time but all the same I was convinced.

It is only with hindsight that I realize that based on absolutely no evidence I fell into the same trap most Zambians fell into and I honestly should have known better. I should have looked at the numbers and made my judgements based on the facts not on my own biased inclinations.

Like it of not the facts are plain and simple; the MMD is the only party that won votes countrywide. They campaigned throughout Zambia and maintained a higher “average” number of votes than the rest of the parties.

The truth of the matter is that you CANNOT win a national election based on three provinces and take the rest of the country for granted. In order to win you must maximize votes in your stronger areas and minimize your losses in those areas where you are weak.

The opposition candidates fared well in some provinces but were absolutely pathetic in other provinces.

The following general pattern characterized the 2006 elections and will probably characterize the 2008 Presidential election:

Constituency: BANGWEULU PF 15,770 68.74% MMD 5,237 22.83% UDA 1,530 6.67% HP 248 1.08% APC 155 0.68% Constituency Totals: 22,940

Constituency: BWEENGWA UDA 11,061 90.74% MMD 972 7.97% HP 71 0.58% PF 62 0.51% APC 24 0.20% Constituency Totals: 12,190

Constituency: CHAVUMA MMD 8,089 71.41% UDA 3,050 26.92% PF 70 0.62% HP 69 0.61% APC 50 0.44% Constituency Totals: 11,328

It does not take a mathematics professor to recognize that the MMD candidate did not win the majority of the votes but did manage to avoid being “blown out” where they did not win and that was the key to the MMD victory in 2006.

As urban dwelling Zambians we have a bad habit of believing Ndola, Kitwe, Lusaka etc are the country and it is only when elections results are announced that we realize how wrong we truly are.

In order to come to an informed decision on the outcome of the coming election we must……wait until the next blog